Impact of Rising Temperature and Rainfall Variability on Smallholders’ Cropping Pattern and Livelihood Security in Sant Kabir Nagar and Basti Districts, Uttar Pradesh, India

This study examines how rising temperatures and increasing rainfall variability are influencing cropping patterns and livelihood security of smallholder farmers in Sant Kabir Nagar and Basti districts of eastern Uttar Pradesh. Using district-level agricultural statistics (KVK district profiles, DES/APY reports), IMD district rainfall summaries and district government statistical reports, we analyze current cropping patterns (area and production for major cereals, pulses and cash crops), climate characteristics, and the livelihood implications for smallholders whose incomes depend on the rice -wheat system, sugarcane, pulses and horticulture. Results show rice -wheat remains dominant, but climate stressors - warming and erratic monsoon distribution - are increasing production risk, encouraging short-duration crops, diversification to pulses and tubers, and uptake of micro-irrigation. We conclude with targeted adaptation recommendations: improve irrigation efficiency, promote short-duration/heat-tolerant varieties, diversify income (livestock/horticulture), and strengthen weather-indexed insurance and extension services.