Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yield in Semi-Arid Regions

Background: Semi-arid regions, characterized by limited rainfall and high temperatures, are highly vulnerable to climate change. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events threaten agricultural productivity, particularly for staple crops like maize and wheat. These changes exacerbate water scarcity and soil degradation, posing risks to food security and livelihoods in these regions.

Objective: This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on crop yields in semi-arid regions, focusing on key staple crops, and to identify adaptive strategies to mitigate adverse effects.

Methods: We analyzed historical climate data (1980–2020) and crop yield records for maize and wheat across semi-arid regions in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Climate models (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios) were used to project temperature and precipitation changes through 2050. Crop simulation models (e.g., DSSAT) were employed to estimate yield responses under various climate scenarios, incorporating factors like irrigation availability and soil management practices.

Results: Projections indicate a potential yield decline of 15–20% for maize and 10–15% for wheat by 2050 under high-emission scenarios (RCP 8.5) due to heat stress and reduced water availability. Adaptation measures, such as drought-resistant varieties and improved irrigation, could reduce losses by up to 50%.

Conclusion & Implication: Climate change significantly threatens crop yields in semi-arid regions, necessitating urgent adoption of adaptive agricultural practices. Implementing resilient crop varieties and sustainable water management can enhance food security and support livelihoods in these vulnerable regions.